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Economic & Budget Watch

FY2026 Midyear GovCon Report: The 5 Rulings, Trends, and Policy Shifts That Will Define the Rest of the Year

Holland & Knight's midyear review of top government contracting decisions reveals five landmark developments from the first half of FY2026 that will shape every contract award, protest, and compliance decision through September 30 and beyond.

July CPI Drops to 2.9% — The First Reading Below 3% in Two Years and What It Means for Federal Contractors

The July CPI report released August 12 showed inflation falling to 2.9% — the first sub-3% reading since March 2024. Here is what it means for federal contractors pricing Q4 work, the FOMC's next move, and the energy market outlook.

Non-Compete Contracts Now 14.8% of All Federal Awards — What the Data Means for Small Business Contractors

Non-competitive federal contract awards hit 14.8% of all awards in H1 2026, up from 12.6% in H1 2025. That is a measurable, accelerating trend that directly shrinks the competitive opportunity pool for small businesses. Here is what the data shows and what to do about it.

How Agencies Actually Buy Under a Continuing Resolution — and How to Keep Your Pipeline Moving

With a FY2027 stopgap likely, here's what a continuing resolution does to federal buying — what stalls, what keeps moving, and how to protect your pipeline.

Tariffs Are Hitting Small Business Federal Contractors Hardest — Here Is Exactly What to Do About It

The Federal Reserve confirms small businesses are bearing the heaviest tariff burden while the government just mandated fixed-price contracts as the default. That collision — rising input costs locked inside fixed prices — is the defining financial challenge for small business federal contractors right now. Here is the playbook.

Inflation Just Posted Its Biggest Monthly Drop Since 2020 — Here’s the Federal Contractor Playbook Before It Reverses

June CPI fell 0.4% — the biggest monthly decline since April 2020 — dropping annual inflation to 3.5%. But with energy still up double digits, hostilities reigniting, and fixed-price contracts now the federal default, contractors can't afford to relax. Your inflation playbook.

What Happens to Government Contractors During a Shutdown? Your Survival Guide for the FY2027 Funding Fight

Three funding lapses hit federal contractors in FY2026 alone. With the October 1 deadline approaching, here's exactly what happens to your contracts, your payments, and your people during a government shutdown — and how to prepare now.

Follow the Money: What the FY2027 Budget Fight Means for Small Business Contractors

House appropriators are proposing $1.856 trillion for FY2027 — up 13% — but the growth is concentrated in defense and homeland security while non-defense programs shrink. Here's where the money is moving and how to position your pipeline.
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